‘Taylor Swift: Release Party of a Showgirl’ Box Office: $33M Opening

MONDAY AM: This showgirl is taller this morning as AMC Theatres and Variance’s Taylor Swift: The Official Release of a Showgirl is coming in with a $34M per estimates. AMC will report the official figure later this afternoon. The 14x Grammy winner had a better Sunday at $8.2M which rockets her to her new threshold at 3,702 theaters.

After disrupting the weekend box office, Showgirl officially leaves the stage leaving the Imax, premium large format screens, etc to Disney’s Tron Ares. The hope is that the Jared Leto movie can hit $40M ala 2010’s Tron Legacy with opened to $44M.

We are hearing that A24’s The Smashing Machine, Dwayne Johnson’s lowest opening ever at the domestic box office, is coming in at $5.9M.

Warner Bros’ One Battle After Another is coming in at $11M, -50%, for 10-day of $42.6M. Sunday was $3.1M, -31% from Saturday’s $4.5M.

Total weekend box office for all movies is estimated to come in at $83.3M, +12% over last weekend and -6% off from a year ago when Warner Bros.’ Joker: Folie a Deux bombed with a $37.6M opening.

SUNDAY AM: While AMC Theatres and Variance’s Taylor Swift: The Official Release of a Showgirl was indeed front-loaded, declining 36% on Saturday with $10M from its pure Friday gross of $15.8M, the 14x Grammy winner is seeing a standalone gross and opening weekend for her cinematic experience of $33M.

There have been other album launches teed up with movies to prop them, ala Imax’s 2021 Covid release of Halsey’s If I Can’t Have Love, I Want Power ($135K opening), but none like Swift’s. Can you think of another music-film or theatrical release that compares to this box office threshold, especially as an 11th hour stunt? It’s a feat to make any motion picture studio envious. Not even Disney in all its brand wattage has ever attempted to do a theatrical release on a big IP like this, with only two weeks of thrifty promotion. Even The Weeknd in all of his platinum success, and with the help of Jenna Ortega couldn’t pull off what Swift did here in her opening; his Hurry Up Tomorrow, a component to his latest album and tour, not even seeing a tomorrow with an opening of $3.3M and a final domestic of $5.2M.

In a further boast: Swift has the No. 1 album and No. 1 movie of the weekend. That is arguably unprecedented: not even Prince could pull that off on the No. 1 opening weekend of Purple Rain at the B.O. back in July 1984 with his album (the soundtrack ranked third at the time of the movie’s release). Whitney Houston couldn’t do it either with The Bodyguard as that movie debuted in third place on its Thanksgiving opening weekend with $16.6M 3-day (Nov. 25, 1992) while the accompanying album debuted in the No. 2 slot for the week of Dec. 5 that year.

As Billboard reported yesterday, Swift’s The Life of a Showgirl clinched the 2nd spot in largest domestic first-day album sales in modern history, with an opening frame of 2.7 million physical and digital copies sold. It’s Swift’s biggest week ever.

When it came to playability of Showgirl, which we told you was mostly in the East, Midwest and South, similar to Eras Tour, most consumers flocked to AMC to see the movie. Since AMC drove the news on the movie, that’s where moviegoers thought they could see it. The movie’s top 50 theaters this weekend, led by AMC’s Dine-In Disney Springs in Florida with just over $95K, were largely AMC’s. The only non-AMC circuits ranking in the top 50 were the Landmark Kanata in Ottawa, Canada (No. 6), Landmark Whitby in Toronto (No. 14), Cineplex Scotiabank in Vancouver (No. 18), Cineplex Park Royal in Vancouver (No. 24), Cineplex Yonge Dundas in Toronto (No. 46) and the Regal Winter Park Village in Orlando-Dayton (No. 47).

Again, when it came to the marketing campaign there weren’t any trailers or in-theater posters. Just billboards, websites, emails, and the Swift social media machine of a half billion-plus. This is a box office case study for the textbooks, and one which I could see rival studios attempting to emulate.

Meanwhile, smelling salts haven’t been able to get A24’s release of Dwayne Johnson’s The Smashing Machine off the mat, the movie coming in at $6M, the lowest ever for the WWE-turned-blockbuster star. No one was expecting a San Andreas opening here. This was clearly a dramatic, out-of-the-box play for The Rock, but, man, this started at tracking at $20M and plummeted to where it is. Yes, Taylor, you’re partly to blame, but not entirely. She stole Rock’s premium large format screens, particularly the Dolby’s. But the cut runs deeper on this biopic on UFC champ Mark Kerr.

There is blood in Paul Thomas Anderson’s $130M-$140M production of One Battle After Another which is clearing $100.7M global with an offshore cume of $58.9M and a domestic hold of $11.1M (-49%) for a running total of $42.8M. As we told you previously, the movie stands to make more worldwide than DiCaprio’s previous Killers of the Flower Moon ($158.7M), which dropped -60% in its second stateside weekend making $9.3M. While Battle is still powered by the coasts, the premium, VistaVision and 70MM theaters (of which there were Imax this weekend at $1.1M for a $7.4M running cume in the format) are the pic’s ammunition. One Batter After Another, despite ceding Imax to Disney’s Tron Ares next weekend, will continue to hold VistaVision, 70MM and some PLFs in its third go-round. The anticipation is for the movie to pop back into Imax again and again as it heads deeper into awards season.

Sunday AM figures:

10. The Long Walk (LG) 1,930 (-367) theaters, Fri $500K (-49%) Sat $750K Sun $450K 3-day $1.7M (-49%), Total $31.9M/Wk 4

10. Kantara: A Legend Chapter 1 (Prath) 689 theaters, Fri $490K, Sat $760K Sun $460K 3-day $1.7M, Total $2.5M/Wk 1

Other

Bone Lake (BST) 1,059 theaters, Fri $468K Sat $212K Sun $148K 3-day $828K, Wk 1

Anemone (Foc) 865 theaters, Fri $310K, Sat $220K Sun $170K 3-day $700K, PTA $809 (eek), Wk 1

SATURDAY AM FINAL: Two superstars with massive social media followings, Taylor Swift with 548 million, and Dwayne Johnson with 562 million, are brawling at the box office with the cat lover showing her claws over the former WWE champ as Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl is conquering with a $30M-$32M opening/sole weekend, and sending The Smashing Machine down for the count with an estimated $6.2M.

That is unfortunately Johnson’s lowest opening ever of his career as a leading man — lower than the $8.5M opening of 2010’s Faster, and below the wide break on Fighting With My Family at $7.8M (which he technically had a supporting role in and produced).

Why the disparity in box office results between the social media heavyweights? Essentially Swifties are seeing Swift as exactly as they want to see her, and for those who love The Rock; this gritty transformation isn’t the champ they know.

Pulling off a feat that no other major studio has ever accomplished, Swift dates a ‘cinematic experience’ two weeks before its release, timed to her album drop and creates an immediate sense of urgency with her fanbase who the 14x Grammy winner speaks directly to on social. Even if Showgirl falls back tonight and comes out in the high $20Ms (no one is expecting that number), so what? It’s still amazing for a movie that was first announced two weeks ago. By the way, Swift directed Showgirl. Fans gave Swift her second A+ CinemaScore last night after 2023’s Eras Tour concert movie. Definite recommend on PostTrak for Showgirl is off the Richter scale at a massive 82% definite recommend. PostTrak auds also gave Showgirl five stars and a 93% positive. Women showed up at 88% with the 18-34 demo at 61%. Diversity demos were 70% Caucasian, 17% Latino and Hispanic, 7% Asian American and 2% Black. Seventy percent were over 25, and 30% under.

Swift’s premium large format screen steal (she took the Dolbys away from DJ) is driving 28% of the weekend with the movie playing best in the South and Midwest where 36% of the gross is coming from. AMC Dine-In Disney Springs, FL is currently Showgirl‘s top grossing locale with $61K.

Swift already had $15M in the bank from presales before Showgirl opened and PostTrak shows that 58% of Swifties bought their tickets more than a week ago, and 26% in the last week. Very little walk-up business with 16% purchasing tickets same-day.

Juxtapose Swift’s 11th hour machine sans any trailers to that of The Smashing Machine which began its marketing about eight months ago with early screenings to the UFC. That org reaches 279 million around the globe. UFC CEO and President Dana White was also a key figure on the publicity tour, giving shoutouts to the movie.

“It’s hard for anybody to relate to what it’s like to be the greatest fighter on the planet. … What they can relate to is pressure and the pressure to deliver.”

—@TheRock on portraying Mark Kerr in the upcoming movie, “The Smashing Machine” 💎 pic.twitter.com/1tLEb76BWT

— First Take (@FirstTake) October 2, 2025

Beyond its UFC outreach, Smashing Machine flexes its marketing even more with a Venice Film Festival world premiere where it receives a 15 1/2 minute standing ovation, a Silver Lion Best Director for Benny Safdie, and Johnson sobbing on a global stage. Why didn’t this superstar’s movie about one of the fighting org’s best, Mark Kerr, transcend? Because in the hands of Safdie and A24, Smashing Machine is an arthouse film; it was never positioned as a mainstream play. It’s very non-traditional in its narrative, some critics get it, others do not. This is a 180 from Johnson’s previous R-rated movie, Pain & Gain, under the direction of Michael Bay and with co-star Mark Wahlberg which was a glossy, major studio take on drugs and beefcakes, opening in the 2013 pre-streaming era to $20.2M. The UFC faithful clearly see that it’s not the Johnson they wanna see. By the way, that demo is largely a homebound audience, and they aren’t leaving the couch for this one; the hope is that they’ll catch it on PVOD. Smashing Machine even gets an A24-like CinemaScore of B-, indicating a divide among those who watched it. That’s the nature of their filmmaker-driven movies — to create discourse. A low definite recommend on PostTrak at 48%, a 72% positive and three stars. Any business for Smashing Machine came from the South and West where 42% of the gross is coming from versus a norm of 33%. AMC Lincoln Square is the Safdie film’s best gross with $26K.

Seventy percent guys to 30% women went to Smashing Machine with 18-34 showing up at 64%. Diversity demos were 53% Caucasian, 27% Latino and Hispanic, 8% Black and 8% Asian American.

Here’s the one silver lining for Smashing Machine: At a net cost of $50M before P&A, with tax credits from its New Mexico and Vancouver shoots, and that’s the largely funded foreign sales production won’t bleed much.

In earnest style, Safdie has been literally handing out flyers to his movie for a while in Manhattan. More on that later.

THE SMASHING MACHINE in Theaters!!! GET TICKETS 🎟️ thanks to everyone who has come out so far, it really means so much. 🥹❤️ pic.twitter.com/fbgK9EoWKI

— Benny safdie (@benny_safdie) October 3, 2025

Showgirl from its announcement was part of the cultural conversation on Swift. Not much in regards to P&A for the Variance distributed AMC title. There were some outdoor billboards ala the one in Times Square right after the pic’s announcement.

Showgirl‘s social media reach across TikTok, YouTube, X, Facebook, and Instagram stood at 714.5M before its opening, 18% ahead of Eras Tour movie’s 604.9M. Wow, and that had a little more than a month to promote. Overall, Showgirl‘s social media reach was 37% ahead of recent concert theatrical norms per RelishMix.

Says RelishMix in their recent report, “Part of what’s super interesting and obvious about the campaign for this film, unlike traditional Hollywood movie runways, is how the instantaneous these projects can pop-up given the social media power that has been built over the last 17 years — which is pumped directly to over a half-a-billion (548M) Swifties across her social network. Since the wedding engagement announcement to Travis Kelsey, with 37.5M clicks on Aug 26 in Taylor’s Instagram, there have been four posts for the new Showgirl album and movie. There are no trailers on the Taylor Swift YouTube channel and there are only stills posted on Instagram with over 20M likes from 282M followers. Post activity on X is extra strong and on TikTok, materials are sparse, but there are 117K #fan posts across TikTok.”

The below TikTok video of BTS of the pic has clocked 9.3M views since posting five days ago.

@taylorswift

She’s got 4️⃣ days left to rehearse for her big moment… 😂 Be the first to get your hands on The Life of a Showgirl: The Crowd is Your King Edition on Summertime Spritz Pink Shimmer Vinyl only at @target starting 10/3. Select stores open at midnight. While supplies last ❤️‍🔥

♬ original sound – Taylor Swift

RelishMix adds, “Convo runs positive for Taylor Swift: Showgirl, with Swifties treating the drop like the second coming of cinema itself. Fans are screaming, crying, planting flowers in the shape of a ‘T,’ and rearranging birthdays and baby deliveries just to be in theaters. The excitement carries comparisons to MCU-level hype, with one fan predicting her ‘Dazzler’ cameo in Avengers Doomsday and another calling her a ‘showgirl extraordinaire.’”

Meanwhile, Warner Bros is seeing One Battle After Another north of $12M in weekend 2 in 2nd. Others see it $10M-$11M. Even if One Battle After Another comes in at the low end, that’s a -55% second weekend hold which is better than Leonardo DiCaprio’s Killers of the Flower Moon which posted -60% in weekend dos. What’s clear is One Battle After Another, which is coursing to $100M worldwide by Sunday, is that it’s bound to ultimately pass Killers of the Flower ($200M+ cost and 3 1/2 hour running time vs. the Paul Thomas Anderson pic’s $130M-$140M and 2 hours and 40 minutes length) which ended its run at $158.7M. Killers of the Flower Moon went the distance to Oscar night with ten nominations off its bloated budget and a final $68M domestic box office. When it came to sizing up the profit-loss on Killers of the Flower, Apple dodged that bullet given how the streamer doesn’t assess the finances of their movies by regular motion picture P&L standards. As one film finance source always told me, big budget movies at Apple are essentially advertising costs for their tech products and universe. No, how fair is that?.

Saturday figures:

1. Taylor Swift…Showgirl (AMC/Variance) 3,702 theaters, Fri $15.8M, 3-day $30M-$32M/Wk 1
2. One Battle After Another (WB) 3,634 (0) theaters, Fri $3.3M (-63%), 3-day $12.3M (-43%), Total $43.9M/Wk 2
3. The Smashing Machine (A24) 3,345 theaters, Fri $2.7M, 3-day $6.2M/Wk 1
4. Gabby’s Dollhouse (Uni) 3,507 (+7) theaters, Fri $1.2M (-72%), 3-day $4.7M (-66%), Total $21.1M/Wk 2
5. The Conjuring: Last Rites (NL) 2,753 (-330) theaters, Fri $1.1M (-40%) 3-day $4.2M (-37%),Total $168M/Wk 5
6. Demon Slayer…Infinity Castle (Sony) 2,547 (-437) theaters, Fri $865K (-52%), 3-day $3.3M (-54%), Total $124.4M/Wk 4
7. Strangers: Chapter 2 (LG) 2,690 (0) theaters, Fri $865K (-64%), 3-day $2.8M (-52%), Total $10.69M/Wk 2
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (re) 2,140 theaters, Fri $1.1M, 3-day $2.5M, Lifetime total $686.6M Wk 1 (re). Overall soft numbers on this Imax playing title. Remember, it’s an advertisement for Avatar: Fire & Ash at the end of the day.
9. Good Boy (IFC) 1,650 theaters, Fri $990K, 3-day $2.25M/Wk 1. Thursday previews were around $370K. This is the range where IFC is opening their genre fare; 2023’s Late Night With the Devil bowed to $2.8M.

10. The Long Walk (LG) 1,930 (-367) theaters, Fri $500K (-49%) 3-day $1.7M (-49%), Total $31.9M/Wk 4

11. Kantara: A Legend Chapter 1 (Prath) 689 theaters, Fri $540K, 3-day $1.5M, Total $2.3M/Wk 1

Other:

Bone Lake (BST) 1,059 theaters, Fri $470K, 3-day $910K, Wk 1

Anemone (Foc) 865 theaters, Fri $310K, 3-day $900K, PTA $1K, Wk 1

Ticket sales were soft for the erotic thriller Bone Lake as well as Daniel Day-Lewis’ return to the big screen after an eight-year absence. Blurb for the latter, directed by Lewis’ son Ronan Day-Lewis: In Northern England, a man heads out on a journey into the woods to reconnect with the estranged hermit brother with whom he shared a complicated past that was altered by life-changing events decades ago. Critics don’t like it at 56%.

FRIDAY PM: The No. 1 exhibitor in the world’s theatrical release of Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl, is heading toward a $15M-$16M Friday with a current opening-weekend forecast of $29M-$31M at 3,700 theaters. Note these figures do not come from AMC Theatres

There are some estimates out there as high as $40M, but here is what’s vital to keep in mind: This is very front-loaded with advance tickets sales arguably accounted for (true, we heard that last time with Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle, but that found an audience). The notion here is that all Swifties are making a date to see Showgirl today, because it’s the release date of her album The Life of a Showgirl (duh).

RELATED: All Of Taylor Swift’s ‘Life Of A Showgirl’ Album Covers & Images

Although not any kind of October opening record, the marvel of it all is how the 14x Grammy winner was able to announce a cinematic experience two weeks before its release; steal Premium Large Format screens from Dwayne Johnson’s The Smashing Machine, Leonardo DiCaprio’s One Battle After Another and James Cameron’s re-release of Avatar: The Way of Water; and get to this box office threshold with very little P&A.

RELATED: Taylor Swift Reveals How Travis Kelce “Crushed” Proposal & Why ‘Life Of A Showgirl’ Was A Remedy When She Was “Worn Down” During Eras Tour

Swift already has broken the Spotify record for most single-day streams; her pre-saves for Showgirl were north of 5 million. No word yet where album sales will land for Swift on Showgirl, but she’s the only performer to have sold more than 1M albums a week seven times. Swift’s bestselling album reportedly is 1989, which has sold 14M copies in the U.S. alone and going platinum abroad.

It was the best of times, and it was the worst of times at the weekend box office — the latter going to Dwayne Johnson’s arthouse biopic about UFC fighter Mark Kerr, The Smashing Machine, which unfortunately is in a sleeper hold and destined for $6M-$7M in third place at 3,345 locations (read Deadline’s review here). The net $50M production was funded largely by foreign sales. Smashing Machine hit tracking three weeks ago with a $20M projection. But after Swift announced two weeks ago that she was pushing her way onto The Rock’s weekend, forecasts plummeted. More on that later. No audience score yet on Rotten Tomatoes. Today is $2.7M for the Benny Safdie-directed movie. Swift stole Smashing Machine‘s Dolby Cinemas.

RELATED: George Michael Estate Praises Taylor Swift’s ‘Father Figure’ Update: “We Had No Hesitation”

In second, is Warner Bros.’ second weekend of One Battle After Another (read our review here), still armed with its 70MM Imax locations, with an estimated $12.5M (-43%) after a second Friday of $3.6M. If all goes right, domestic hits $44.1M by Sunday and overseas shoots to $56M take after a second frame $17M haul for a $100.1M global running cume. Knock on wood.

Universal’s second weekend of Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie at 3,507 venues is collapsing with $4.7M in 4th, -66%. Not good for a kids movie. That will get the big-screen version of the DreamWorks Animation-Netflix show to $21.1M by Sunday. Today is $1.2M.

RELATED: New Line In Final Talks With Michiel Blanchart To Direct ‘Final Destination 7’

Fifth belongs to New Line’s The Conjuring: Last Rites at 2,753 with a fifth Friday of $1.1M and fifth frame of $3.8M, -44%, and running cume of $166.6M, again, the highest-grossing movie in the horror franchise.

20th Century Studios via Disney’s reissue of Avatar: The Way of Water at 2,140 sites is seeing a $3M outside the Top 5. Today, including previews, is just under $1M. Again, the movie will offer one of three sneak peeks of December’s Avatar: Fire and Ash. The 2022 pic is playing in 3D, Imax, with some PLFs.

RELATED: The Movies That Have Made More Than $1 Billion At The Global Box Office